Snow Day Calculator 🌨️

About This Snow Day Calculator

Welcome to the enhanced Snow Day Calculator! This tool uses a more sophisticated heuristic model to estimate the probability of a school closing due to winter weather. It goes beyond simple snowfall amounts to analyze critical factors and their interactions, offering a more nuanced prediction.

We consider wind chill effects, the significant impact of icing (especially freezing rain), different precipitation types, the crucial role of timing (affecting commutes and cleanup), blizzard potential, and importantly, the typical behavior or tolerance level of school districts.

Key Factors in the Calculation:

• Precipitation Type & Amount: Freezing rain/ice has the highest weight. Heavy snow rates and significant accumulation (esp. 6"+) strongly increase chances. Mix/sleet adds moderate risk.
• Temperature & Wind Chill: Very low temperatures (below 15°F, especially below 0°F) significantly boost probability. Wind chill is factored in via the temperature input and direct wind effects.
• Timing: Snow or ice impacting the morning commute (6-9 AM) or arriving the evening before (limiting cleanup time) are the most critical periods.
• Hazardous Conditions: Specific bonuses are applied for likely icing conditions (temps near freezing with precipitation), significant drifting potential (snow + wind), and potential blizzard conditions (heavy snow + strong wind + low visibility).
• District Tolerance: The final probability is adjusted based on whether your local district is known to close readily (Low Tolerance) or only in extreme circumstances (High Tolerance).

How to Use:

For the best estimate:

1. Check Defaults: The initial values often reflect common scenarios or settings loaded from past usage (using averages/modes).
2. Set Snowfall: Adjust the slider for the *total* expected inches of snow/sleet.
3. Set Temperature: Use the slider for the *lowest* expected temperature in Fahrenheit, factoring in the wind chill ("feels like" temperature).
4. Select Precipitation Type: Choose the *primary* type expected during the most critical hours (e.g., overnight into the morning commute).
5. Select Timing: Indicate when the *worst* conditions (heaviest precipitation, strongest winds) are most likely.
6. Select Wind: Choose the expected *peak* wind intensity. Higher winds increase drifting and blizzard risks.
7. Select District Tolerance: Estimate your local district's tendency to close.
8. Click Calculate: Get your probability estimate!
9. Review Result: The calculator provides a percentage chance and a descriptive interpretation.

Features:

• Refined Heuristic Model: Improved weighting and interaction logic for better predictions.
• Emphasis on Critical Scenarios: Better handling of Icing, Blizzards, Wind Chill, and Timing impacts.
• District Tolerance Adjustment: Incorporates local context.
• Smarter Defaults (Firebase): Uses median/mode values from past inputs for more robust defaults (requires Firebase setup).
• Interactive UI: Clear sliders with value displays and smooth animations.
• Dynamic Snowfall Animation: Visual feedback adjusts intensity based on the calculated chance.
• Responsive Design: Works well on desktops, tablets, and phones.

Disclaimer: This calculator is intended for entertainment and estimation purposes only. Weather forecasting and school closure decisions are complex. Always rely on official announcements from your school district for actual closure information.